MTV is better than it's been at any time since "Thriller".

Oh, stop complaining about them not playing any music. It's not ABOUT MUSIC! It's about SERVICING THE AUDIENCE!

When the boomers running record companies wanted to know about themselves they were restricted to reading "Rolling Stone", which didn't even hit critical mass until after 1970. Today's kids have a whole CHANNEL! MTV!

Not that the rest of the media is ignoring them. But, the rest of the media, the rest of the companies catering to kids, are so CYNICAL! The kids can read the falseness in the presentation. Whereas as hokey as MTV can be, kids don't feel manipulated, they think its movers and shakers are in the pit with them.

Forget the daytime programming. Just like the networks, this is not the time that counts. Go to the evening. The TEN SPOT! When MTV airs its shows.

The only reality show better than MTVs' is "Survivor". Watch MTV's reality shows and you get a FLAVOR for youth culture.

Watch "Real World" in Paris. You'll find an early twentysomething who LOVES the USA, hates Parisians, thinks the bread's too hard, eats at McDonald's. And, he's not the STEREOTYPE! Not some long-haired tattooed guy from the street. No, he's from GEORGIA! THIS is the element that has a problem with anti-Americanism. If you want the pulse of America's youth, just watch this show.

Or "Road Rules". Or "Surf Girls".

The best reality shows are about the PEOPLE involved. That's the secret to MTVs' shows' success. You see yourself, or your situation, or ask yourself, HOW WOULD I ACT IF THIS HAPPENED TO ME??

It's not pseudo stars pandering, not network execs pandering, it's...real.

Funny how MTV figured out that everybody wants to be a star, and Simon Fuller too, but the major labels forgot about the concept after Sly Stone's "Everybody Is A Star" slipped off the charts almost thirty five years ago.

Watch MTV. If you want to sell to these people. And know that the channel is NEVER going back to videos. Never ever. They're just telling you that to appease you. Because they need your stars as barkers and eye candy to drag viewers in.

And, if MTV had a week where they went back to 1981, and played only videos, ratings would tank.

Because videos are OVER!

If they weren't, the ratings at MTV2 would be through the ROOF!

And they're not.

As for VH1...it's lost its focus. It's a train-wreck. It too needs to be about the audience. For, after almost a decade as Music First, they've strip-mined the landscape. There's no music left to exploit except the new stuff, which SUCKS!

RADIO

The only people who still believe in music radio are the conglomerates with monopolies and the major record labels. All the LISTENERS, the POTENTIAL listeners, think it's a JOKE! If you're listening to music radio, you're the lowest common denominator. You don't have a CD player in your car. Like everybody with any MONEY!

And, unlike the sixties, almost NO ONE listens to music on the radio at home.

Really. Pay attention.

When do people listen to the radio at home. In the morning. It's PERFECT. While you're walking around the house, getting your shit together.

And, is there any MUSIC in the morning?

Almost none.

Because the music being purveyed SUCKS!

Music radio is a giant sinkhole.

I can understand the majors wanting to reduce indie promo costs, but what I CAN'T understand is their reluctance to explore new avenues of exploitation. Look at the statistics. Music radio listenership keeps going DOWN! Kids especially don't listen.

So why don't the major labels align with XM, or Sirius, or Web radio? It's a natural progression.

But today's major label is part of a CONGLOMERATE! Which demands quarterly profits. There's NO planning whatsoever.

Think about it.

Just study high tech. If you stand on your laurels, you go out of business. It's about PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE. And the major labels don't DO this.

Major labels know that the easiest way to sell music is to get it on the radio. So they keep flogging the same horse. Even though the horse is dying. Really, why all the dudes running these majors aren't fired is BEYOND ME! If only they'd bring someone in from the outside who would TRULY revolutionize things.

MAJOR LABELS

They say it's about piracy.

But really, it's about the music. The music they're purveying sucks.

The majors believe that music is like food, people HAVE to buy it.

But they DON'T!

People are sick and tired of the prefab acts releasing overpriced CDs with only one or two good tracks. Even if file-trading didn't EXIST sales would be going down.

And isn't it funny that the majors say it's all about the ALBUM when they don't MAKE THEM ANYMORE!

An album is something you play from beginning to end.

You CAN'T play from beginning to end almost ALL of the majors' product. It's TORTURE!

The kind of music the major is signing and making is TOO NARROW! It's all about signing acts and tweaking them to fit into the Top Forty. It would be as if every woman was trying to look like Pamela Anderson. Sure, SOME people like her, but I find her ABOMINABLE! With those huge fake breasts. The airhead intelligence. And, I prefer brunettes to blondes. Oh, I might like an OCCASIONAL blonde, but my main preference...

WHY are the majors only making the equivalent of blondes??? Sure, I might like ONE of them. But not MOST OF THEM!

And they'd say no, I've got it wrong. They've got pop, metal, even emo-influenced acts. I'll say they all go through the same filter. That without hits, the major wants NOTHING to do with them.

But, to go in another direction would require the major to THINK and expend MAJOR EFFORT!

Really, the majors are just gamblers. The system is Vegas. IF they can get something to catch fire at radio, they can sell product.

To start at the bottom with something new and untested... Shit, what will they DO with it???

But it's ALWAYS been the new and different and challenging that's saved the music business' ass.

FURTHERMORE, just like the odds are stacked against the player in Vegas, it's almost the same way in the music game. To get on the radio you've got to spend a TON of money. And even if you get airplay, you STILL might not make enough money to break even.

Vegas is a monument to losers.

Today's system is the same.

RETAIL

A dying business.

Big box retailers stock the hits and the indies...have gone out of business and STILL can't stock enough titles. The action is CERTAINLY moving to the Internet. Where the costs are lower and availability is a non-issue.

That's it. End of story. Retail is like the typewriter. Supplanted by the computer. To expend money to save Tower or Wherehouse would be like buying Smith Corona stock.

Smith Corona went bankrupt.

Oh, a company with the same name is operating again. STILL selling typewriters. But to say it's a niche business...would be CHARITABLE!

Sure, some indie stores selling physical product will survive. Just like there's SOME demand for vinyl records.

TOURING

Long in the tooth.

The concert has become INSTITUTIONALIZED! The visceral excitement is ABSENT!

First and foremost, it's become a summer business. As if people don't listen to music in the winter.

And, when it DOES go indoors, one gets the impression it's rock tonight, hockey tomorrow. Unlike the Fillmores, you don't get the impression that music LIVES THERE!

But it's not only the long lamented Fillmores. It's the clubs. The THEATRES!

They're all dark.

Labels will say it's too expensive to work there.

The lower rungs of exposition must REOPEN! Not only to develop acts but because it's a better LISTENING EXPERIENCE!

It's ONLY about the money today.

And the concertgoer KNOWS it. Hell, never mind the price of tickets and parking, look at the price of T-SHIRTS! After investing a hundred bucks to go, the attendee WILL buy the shirt, to evidence he was there, but make no mistake, he KNOWS he was ripped off.

Just like the music itself, the renaissance is not going to start at the top, but the bottom.

Could you imagine the house concert phenomenon existing thirty years ago? Why? There were SO many great places to hear music.

But no longer.

Self-contained acts not signed to major labels will find new places to play. It will be rough. But demand will CREATE this business.

As for Clear Channel...

They, like HOB, would SELL the damn touring business if anybody would pay what they've got invested in it. Will time go by and an entrepreneur like Steve Jobs, er Bill Graham, buy a chain and make it audience-friendly once again? Don't be surprised. There's just not enough UPSIDE for the Wall Streeters invested in the touring business. But for someone who LOVES it there is.

THE NET

Web radio...

Stunning that the majors have done so much to kill it.

Yet, it's still in its infancy. Because the software is too rickety.

Oh, there's enough user infrastructure. Thirty one percent of home Internet users have broadband, but as to whether they believe running music in the background will work...

This business needs Barry Diller. To organize it. Get rid of the tech issues. Make it sexy.

But no entrepreneur will go in. Because the major labels only want to HAMSTRING the business instead of seeing that if it FLOURISHES it helps THEM!

Just like they've hamstrung online distribution.

The iTunes Store DOES NOT have the tech issues of Web Radio. But, the ninety nine cent per track formula is FLAWED!

Oh, it's not only that the tracks are overpriced...really, the business is flawed in the CONCEPTION!

Talk to ANY major label. Singles are a QUAGMIRE! They can't make any MONEY! In most cases they LOSE money. At best, the single is an advertisement for the album.

The album... It's not about the ten odd tracks. It's about the PRICE POINT!

The key is to think, how can the major labels get consumers to pony up the EQUIVALENT of album pricing?

THIS is one of the great reasons flat-fee is so great. Because the minimum is much HIGHER!

The price for AOL is $23.95 per month. People who barely use the service pay it because...they've got no real option. They want to be able to play, and that's the cost to play, reasonably. The more serious users...they find it appealing because the limit is CAPPED! You're never surprised by the bill. You can BUDGET! That's the American way, the TECH way, tell me what I'm IN FOR!

But the major labels won't do this.

Sure, if they charge a flat fee of ten to twenty dollars per month some heavy music users are going to get a bargain. But, they'll also bring in a plethora of OTHER users who WANT music but don't want an exorbitant bill. Why charge these people ninety nine cents when you can get them to fork over ten or twenty bills and have the chance that they'll become FANS of new things. It's all about the UPSIDE! Why pay radio to try and get them to play your wares to expose them when you can get them directly to the consumer at a very low threshold cost.

The major labels are married to the per track price because it is based on their present cost structure.

Until the majors split their revenue on a transparent percentage basis, they're fucked. Business will be stagnant.

THE INDIES

It's not like the past. Where the label and the act were separate. In so many cases today, the label and the act are ONE!

Yup, in the INDIE world the Robbie Williams model thrives.

In other words, you don't need to sell a ton of product at a high price to make your money.

The key is to get as many people exposed to the band's sound as possible, so they become fans, so you can get them to pay for concert tickets and merchandise as well as music.

SO WHAT if some people rip off the music.

This is the lesson of Phish, ALL the jam bands. RECORD! TRADE! It only helps BUILD THE BAND!

Indies HAVE to do innovative stuff.

And right now they are.

THEY'RE working out the future while the majors are trying to save the old model. And, the question is, when the majors finally wake up, will the NEW acts want to sign with them?

The new acts are MUSICIANS! They don't EVER want to be told what to do!

THINK ABOUT THAT!

Image tells us that Clive Davis is the maestro. THE label head. Would ANY of the new acts want to sign with Clive? OF COURSE NOT! Because he's gonna FUCK with them! True musicians want to leave authority behind, do their own thing, and THAT'S why they're role models, THAT'S why people follow them so fervently. Today's music stars are all about IMAGE! And once their hitmaking days are through, they're TRULY DONE! NOBODY WANTS THEM!

Whereas even LAME acts from the seventies and eighties, like STYX AND REO, can STILL play to thousands of people. When no one wants ANYBODY from '95 on unless they have a hit on the radio RIGHT NOW!

And then...most of these people don't want to see the act. Because they KNOW they're phony.

END RESULT

Once again. It's NOT about piracy. Not at all.

Oh, there IS piracy. But it's not the CAUSATION of the sales slump. It's just EVIDENCE that the consumer is fed up. With business as usual. Even if every piracy hole were closed, business would not go up significantly.

Now if you're just about money today...the future is not totally here yet. It's arriving in drips and drabs. Keep your foot in the old world.

But if you want to play in the future, know that cataclysmic changes are coming. Not only in the realm of distribution, but MUSIC!

That's what's gonna surprise the besuited execs. That people want SOMETHING ELSE!

And the majors will try and adjust. But their market share will shrink. Oh, they'll still be able to drive the big projects home. But, to play with them will involve compromise. Many of the acts will go to...indies.

Yup, a television model is coming. The major labels are the networks. With dominant ratings, but an ever-decreasing share of the market. Yup, the indies are going to eat away at the majors' share. And, the nimble indies are going to be where the profits are. Don't forget, MTV is more profitable than CBS.

And both of these outlets are owned by Viacom.

Yup, the networks WOKE UP! They finally saw the action was in cable. So they purchased the cable outlets. Or their media conglomerate parents did. Will the same thing happen in music?

Well, there's a giant opportunity NOW. The majors, at the advent of this change, should adjust their business model, form indie-style companies, BUY the indies or get the people running them under contract. But, as stated above, the people at the helm of the majors have no VISION!

As for buying the indies later...

This is not television. The cost of production, with computers, is almost nothing. The cost of distribution, with the Internet, is almost nothing. There's just not the same INCENTIVE TO SELL OUT!

Which is why the major labels should TRULY act now if they want to survive.

But the major labels have circled the wagons. They're against the consumer and the acts. They're only about the execs. This is not a recipe for long term success.